INDEX
VDIX
ValueDetect Intrinsic eXpectations Index
Overvalued market
MARKET VALUATION
VDIX market valuation index
VDIX measures whether the market is expensive or cheap relative to intrinsic value. For each company, ValueDetect estimates fair value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, then compares it with the current share price to derive a RiskRatio. These signals are capped, weighted by market capitalization, and aggregated into a single market-wide score.
METHODOLOGY
How VDIX is calculated
01
DCF-based fair value
Each company has a FairValuePerShare estimated using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on projected future cash flows.
02
Compute RiskRatio
The gap between current price and DCF fair value is converted into a RiskRatio. Positive = undervalued, Negative = overvalued.
03
Cap and weight
RiskRatio values are capped to [-5, 1] and weighted by MarketCap.
04
Aggregate
All companies are combined into one market score using a weighted average.
VDIX formula
Σ(clamp(RiskRatio, -5, 1) × MarketCap) / Σ(MarketCap)Below 0 = overvalued market
Around 0 = fairly valued
Above 0 = undervalued market
TIME SERIES
Historical VDIX score
Daily history of the market-cap weighted intrinsic value signal.
Undervalued market
Fair value
Overvalued market
Current regime
Overvalued
Index
VDIXFair Value Rankings
Market Price vs Intrinsic Value
Quick access to the most undervalued and overvalued stocks, ranked by their discount or premium to DCF-based fair value.
Undervalued
View full rankingStocks trading below fair value
1
CF Industries Holdings Inc
CF
+79%
discount2
Delta Air Lines Inc
DAL
+79%
discount3
FTAI Aviation Ltd
FTAI
+78%
discountOvervalued
View full rankingStocks trading above fair value
1
Micron Technology Inc
MU
+392%
premium2
Advanced Micro Devices Inc
AMD
+383%
premium3
Waters Corp
WAT
+371%
premiumLatest Research
View all analysesRecent equity analyses
Individual company valuations based on financial statements, profitability, and discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis.
Undervalued
PTC Inc (PTC) Cash Strength Versus Balance Sheet Pressure
Is reinvestment funded by cash, or by balance sheet strain?
Overvalued
Packaging Corp of America (PKG) Profit Pressure Meets High Spending
Can the balance sheet carry heavy reinvestment when operating profit turns negative?
Overvalued
J B Hunt Transport Services Inc (JBHT) Earnings Strength Versus Premium Pricing
Is the balance sheet being priced like a premium asset?
Overvalued
West Pharmaceutical Services Inc (WST) High Margins Meet Lofty Valuation
Is reinvestment paying off enough to justify this price?
Overvalued
Woodward Inc (WWD) Growth Premium Faces High Expectations
Is the price already paying for years of reinvestment-led growth?
Fair value
Insulet Corp (PODD) Growth Strength Tested by Heavy Spending
Can high growth stay durable with rising capital spending?