Margins Tested as Growth Slows
Fair valueDCF
Equity analysis

United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) Margins Tested as Growth Slows

Apr 8, 2026Equity Analysis

Is UPS reinvesting enough to protect margins while revenue softens?

Trailing P/E
14.78
Price
97.57
ROE
35.12
Gross Margin
83.19

How Does This Global Delivery Network Operate?

United Parcel Service (UPS) provides parcel delivery and logistics services, moving shipments through an integrated network. Its operations span pickup, transportation, sorting, and final-mile delivery for a broad customer base. The business is built around high-volume package flows and service reliability, with scale that supports network density. UPS is a large, publicly traded logistics operator with an equity value around USD 82.8 billion.

Are Margins Holding as Revenue Declines?

Fundamentals

For 2025, reported in USD, revenue was about USD 88.7 billion, down 2.6% year over year, while net income was USD 5.6 billion, translating to a 6.28% net profit margin on a trailing basis. Operating margin over the same period was 8.87%, alongside a gross margin of 83.19%.

Reinvestment and balance-sheet capacity show up clearly in the cash and spending lines. Depreciation and amortization totaled USD 3.7 billion and capital spending was USD 3.7 billion, putting upkeep and investment at roughly the same scale as the asset base turns over. UPS ended the year with USD 5.9 billion of cash against USD 608 million of total debt.

Is the Stock Fairly Priced Now?

DCF / Multiples

At USD 97.57 per share, the stock sits within the DCF range that runs from USD 85.72 in a weaker scenario to USD 107.28 at the central estimate and USD 127.33 in a stronger outcome. On headline pricing, that aligns with a 14.78 trailing P/E and 8.43 EV/EBITDA.

Profitable but Growth Is Weak

Takeaway

UPS is running a profitable network, but growth is currently negative. The case relies on revenue stabilizing while margins hold. Reinvestment needs to keep pace with the asset base. If volume stays soft, profit can compress quickly. Pricing is not demanding, but execution still has to stay consistent.

Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
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Latest observation03 June 2026The latest weighted reading suggests that the market is trading above DCF-based intrinsic value in aggregate.
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