Margins Tested Amid Falling Sales
Fair valueDCF
Equity analysis

Paccar Inc (PCAR) Margins Tested Amid Falling Sales

Apr 27, 2026Equity Analysis

Can margins stay intact when revenue is shrinking?

Trailing P/E
28.13
Price
127
ROE
12.57
Gross Margin
20.07

How Does This Truck Maker Operate?

Paccar builds and sells heavy-duty trucks and related transportation equipment. The business is structured around manufacturing and delivering vehicles to customers who rely on uptime and replacement cycles. It operates at large scale, with a market value of about USD 66.8 billion. Over time, the durability of the model depends on keeping production, pricing, and cost control aligned through uneven demand.

Are Margins Holding Up as Revenue Falls?

Fundamentals

For 2025, reported in USD, revenue was about USD 28.4 billion, down 15.5% year over year. EBIT was -USD 284.3 million, and net income was USD 2.4 billion. Trailing margins show a 20.07% gross margin, 13.16% operating margin, and 8.35% net profit margin.

Cash flow proxy came in at -USD 569.4 million, after USD 398.2 million of depreciation and amortization and USD 743.0 million of capital spending. Total debt was about USD 5.0 billion.

Is the Stock Price Above Fair Value?

DCF / Multiples

At USD 127.00, the stock sits slightly above the central DCF estimate, with the valuation range running from USD 86.59 in a weaker scenario through USD 121.72 to USD 160.63 in a stronger outcome. The headline multiples alongside that pricing are 28.13x trailing earnings and 16.63x EV/EBITDA.

Margins Under Pressure

Takeaway

The business is being tested by a sharp revenue pullback. Durability here depends on keeping margins resilient through volume swings. Cash generation needs to normalize after a negative year. If operating results stay choppy, the current pricing becomes harder to defend.

Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
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VDIX measures whether the market is expensive or cheap relative to intrinsic value. For each company, ValueDetect estimates fair value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, then compares it with the current share price to derive a RiskRatio. These signals are capped, weighted by market capitalization, and aggregated into a single market-wide score.

Current score-0.76Negative = market trades above fair value
1-day move+0.02Rising score = improving valuation conditions
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Latest observation17 June 2026The latest weighted reading suggests that the market is trading above DCF-based intrinsic value in aggregate.
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