High Margins Meet Price Pressure
OvervaluedDCF
Equity analysis

Moody's Corp (MCO) High Margins Meet Price Pressure

Apr 7, 2026Equity Analysis

Is reinvestment pace enough to justify today’s earnings multiple?

Trailing P/E
31.95
Price
438.47
ROE
62.81
Gross Margin
74.44

How Does This Credit Data Business Operate?

Moody’s Corporation provides credit ratings, research, and analytical services used by investors and issuers. Its work centers on assessing credit risk and distributing data and insights that support capital markets activity. The company also sells software and analytics tools that help customers monitor risk and make decisions. At roughly USD 78.7 billion in market value, it operates at a scale where recurring information products sit alongside transaction-linked activity.

Are Profit Margins and Cash Flow Holding Up?

Fundamentals

In 2025 (reported in USD), Moody’s generated revenue of about USD 7.7 billion, alongside EBIT of roughly USD 3.35 billion and net income of about USD 2.46 billion. Revenue grew 8.9% versus the prior year, while trailing profitability remained high, with a 74.44% gross margin feeding into a 42.69% operating margin and a 31.86% net profit margin.

Cash on the balance sheet was about USD 2.38 billion against total debt of roughly USD 95 million. Depreciation and amortization were around USD 480 million, and the company’s cash-flow proxy was about USD 3.16 billion, reflecting EBIT after tax plus depreciation and amortization and minus capital spending, excluding working-capital changes.

Is The Market Overpaying For Growth?

DCF / Multiples

With the stock at about USD 438.47, the DCF range runs from roughly USD 199 in a weaker outcome through about USD 297 at the central estimate to around USD 402 in a stronger outcome, placing the current price above that range. Headline pricing also sits at 31.95x trailing earnings and 22.04x EV/EBITDA, alongside a 10.18x price-to-sales ratio.

Strong But Priced For Perfection

Takeaway

The price asks for continued growth and disciplined reinvestment. Margins and cash generation need to stay resilient. If growth cools, the valuation can compress quickly. The setup is demanding, even with strong current profitability.

Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
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INDEX
VDIX
ValueDetect Intrinsic eXpectations Index
Overvalued market
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VDIX measures whether the market is expensive or cheap relative to intrinsic value. For each company, ValueDetect estimates fair value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, then compares it with the current share price to derive a RiskRatio. These signals are capped, weighted by market capitalization, and aggregated into a single market-wide score.

Current score-0.82Negative = market trades above fair value
1-day move-0.13Rising score = improving valuation conditions
7-day average-0.68Smoothed market valuation signal
Latest observation03 June 2026The latest weighted reading suggests that the market is trading above DCF-based intrinsic value in aggregate.
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