Margins Tested Against Market Pricing
Fair valueDCF
Equity analysis

Intercontinental Exchange Inc (ICE) Margins Tested Against Market Pricing

Apr 6, 2026Equity Analysis

Is the exchange’s cash engine durable enough for this price?

Trailing P/E
27.92
Price
162.98
ROE
11.63
Gross Margin
78.57

How Does This Exchange Make Money?

Intercontinental Exchange runs market infrastructure and related services for financial markets. The business centers on operating exchanges and providing trading and data services that support price discovery and risk transfer. It also provides technology and workflow tools that connect market participants to those venues and datasets. The company operates at large scale, with a market value around USD 92.6 billion.

Are Revenue And Margins Holding Up?

Fundamentals

For 2025, reported in USD, revenue reached USD 12.6 billion, with EBIT at USD 4.9 billion and net income at USD 3.37 billion. Revenue grew 7.5% year over year, alongside a trailing operating margin of 39.0% and a net profit margin of 26.23%.

Cash generation, using the stated proxy, was about USD 5.14 billion, supported by USD 1.56 billion of depreciation and amortization and offset by USD 373 million of capital spending. The balance sheet shows USD 837 million of cash against USD 19.6 billion of total debt.

Is The Stock Fairly Priced Now?

DCF / Multiples

At USD 162.98, the stock sits near the central DCF estimate, with the valuation range running from USD 100.82 in a weaker scenario to USD 161.97 in a central case and USD 230.53 in a stronger outcome. Headline pricing also reflects a 27.92 P/E and 16.72 EV/EBITDA on a trailing basis.

Valuation Leaves Little Cushion

Takeaway

The stock price already matches the base-case cash-flow story. Durability depends on keeping margins high and cash conversion steady. Debt makes consistency more important than speed. If cash generation softens, the valuation range becomes less forgiving.

Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
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INDEX
VDIX
ValueDetect Intrinsic eXpectations Index
Overvalued market
View index

VDIX measures whether the market is expensive or cheap relative to intrinsic value. For each company, ValueDetect estimates fair value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, then compares it with the current share price to derive a RiskRatio. These signals are capped, weighted by market capitalization, and aggregated into a single market-wide score.

Current score-0.82Negative = market trades above fair value
1-day move-0.13Rising score = improving valuation conditions
7-day average-0.68Smoothed market valuation signal
Latest observation03 June 2026The latest weighted reading suggests that the market is trading above DCF-based intrinsic value in aggregate.
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