Profit Strength Meets Cash Constraints
Slightly overvaluedDCF
Equity analysis

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) Profit Strength Meets Cash Constraints

May 6, 2026Equity Analysis

Can cash cover the next stretch of restaurant reinvestment?

Trailing P/E
26.62
Price
32.31
ROE
47
Gross Margin
30.62

How Does This Restaurant Chain Operate?

Chipotle Mexican Grill runs a fast-casual restaurant chain centered on made-to-order Mexican-inspired food. The business is built around company-operated locations that serve customers directly through in-restaurant and digital ordering. Revenue is primarily generated from food and beverage sales across its restaurant base. The model depends on consistent throughput, disciplined food execution, and ongoing investment in new and existing locations.

Are Margins and Cash Flow Holding Steady?

Fundamentals

For 2025, reported in USD, revenue was about USD 11.9 billion, with EBIT of roughly USD 1.9 billion and net income of USD 1.5 billion. Revenue grew 5.4% year over year, alongside a trailing gross margin of 30.62% and operating margin of 16.23%.

Cash ended the period at about USD 350.5 million. Depreciation and amortization totaled roughly USD 361.4 million, and the cash flow proxy was about USD 1.8 billion, reflecting operating earnings after tax plus depreciation and amortization, net of capital spending assumptions used in that proxy.

Is The Market Price Above Fair Value?

DCF / Multiples

At USD 32.31, the stock trades above the central DCF estimate of USD 25.64, while still below the upper estimate of USD 37.67 and above the lower estimate of USD 15.87. Headline pricing also aligns with a 26.62 P/E and 17.65 EV/EBITDA on a trailing basis.

Profitability With Limited Cushion

Takeaway

The business is profitable, but cash on hand is not large. Durability depends on keeping store economics consistent as it reinvests. The current price leans on a better-than-midcase outcome. If reinvestment absorbs more cash than expected, resilience looks thinner.

Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
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INDEX
VDIX
ValueDetect Intrinsic eXpectations Index
Overvalued market
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VDIX measures whether the market is expensive or cheap relative to intrinsic value. For each company, ValueDetect estimates fair value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, then compares it with the current share price to derive a RiskRatio. These signals are capped, weighted by market capitalization, and aggregated into a single market-wide score.

Current score-0.82Negative = market trades above fair value
1-day move-0.13Rising score = improving valuation conditions
7-day average-0.68Smoothed market valuation signal
Latest observation03 June 2026The latest weighted reading suggests that the market is trading above DCF-based intrinsic value in aggregate.
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