Cash Strength Meets Shrinking Revenue
Fair valueDCF
Equity analysis

Carlyle Group Inc (CG) Cash Strength Meets Shrinking Revenue

Jul 3, 2026Equity Analysis

Is reinvestment funded by cash, or by balance-sheet strain?

Trailing P/E
28.03
Price
42.83
ROE
9.65
Gross Margin
70.23

How Does This Asset Manager Earn?

Carlyle Group Inc is an alternative asset manager that raises and invests capital across private-market strategies. It earns money from managing client assets and from performance-based investment results across its funds. The firm operates at institutional scale, allocating capital across multiple strategies and investment vehicles. Its business model centers on sourcing deals, managing portfolios, and recycling capital into new opportunities.

Are Margins Holding Amid Revenue Decline?

Fundamentals

In its latest annual filing, reported in USD, Carlyle finished 2025 with USD 2.0 billion of cash alongside USD 4.8 billion of revenue and USD 944.7 million of net income. Revenue fell 11.9% year over year, while trailing profitability metrics show a 70.23% gross margin, an 18.76% operating margin, and a 13.46% net profit margin.

Depreciation and amortization totaled USD 192.1 million, keeping non-cash expense meaningful relative to the income statement. On trailing metrics, ROE was 9.65%, placing the recent earnings level against the equity base.

Is The Stock Priced Above Fair Value?

DCF / Multiples

At USD 42.83, the stock sits above a DCF central estimate of USD 40.00, with the full range running from USD 30.12 in a weaker scenario to USD 50.30 in a stronger outcome. Headline pricing also reflects a 28.03 P/E and 29.92 EV/EBITDA on a trailing basis.

Cash Supports But Growth Matters

Takeaway

The balance sheet starts with real cash, which helps durability. Reinvestment needs to translate into steadier revenue and earnings power. Today’s price leans on that improvement arriving without funding pressure. If revenue keeps shrinking, resilience will depend more on cash.

Disclaimer
This information is for educational purposes and not investment advice.
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Latest observation03 July 2026The latest weighted reading suggests that the market is trading above DCF-based intrinsic value in aggregate.
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