Valuation Pressure Ahead
OvervaluedDCF
Equity analysis

Analog Devices Inc (ADI) Valuation Pressure Ahead

Mar 27, 2026Equity Analysis

Is the price assuming returns that are hard to sustain?

Trailing P/E
56.43
Price
313.42
ROE
7.92
Gross Margin
62.84

Company Overview

Analog Devices designs and sells semiconductors used to process real‑world signals. The company’s products sit at the intersection of sensing, conversion, and signal conditioning. It operates at large scale, with a market value around USD 153 billion. The investment debate centers on how much durable economic return the business can compound from here.

Analysis of recent data

Fundamentals

For the latest annual period reported in USD, revenue was USD 11.0 billion and EBIT was USD 2.9 billion, with net income of USD 2.3 billion. Year over year, revenue grew 16.9%. Profitability remained high in percentage terms, with a 62.84% gross margin, a 29.24% operating margin, and a 23.02% net profit margin.

On a cash-style view of operating earnings, the cash flow proxy was about USD 2.4 billion, after adding back USD 406.8 million of depreciation and amortization and subtracting USD 533.6 million of capital spending. The balance sheet shows USD 2.5 billion of cash against USD 8.6 billion of total debt. With ROE at 7.92%, the key long-term question is whether incremental capital deployed can earn meaningfully above that level.

The business produces a lot of profit per sales dollar. The key is whether new investment earns higher returns. Execution needs to keep cash generation resilient.

Valuation

DCF / Multiples

At USD 313.42 per share, the stock price sits above the value indicated by the DCF work even under a stronger operating outcome. In other words, the current quote implies a future path where returns on capital and cash generation stay elevated enough to outrun the assumptions embedded in that valuation range.

The pricing also lines up with demanding headline multiples (56.43x earnings and 37.86x EV/EBITDA on a TTM basis). That combination leaves less room for average reinvestment outcomes; the story needs sustained high-return deployment of profits.

Conclusion

Takeaway

The stock price is built for better returns than today’s. The business already earns high margins, but ROE is modest. For this to work, returns on equity need to rise. Debt levels make that improvement more important. If returns stay where they are, the valuation looks hard to defend.

Disclaimer
This information is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
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INDEX
VDIX
ValueDetect Intrinsic eXpectations Index
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VDIX measures whether the market is expensive or cheap relative to intrinsic value. For each company, ValueDetect estimates fair value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, then compares it with the current share price to derive a RiskRatio. These signals are capped, weighted by market capitalization, and aggregated into a single market-wide score.

Current score-0.82Negative = market trades above fair value
1-day move-0.13Rising score = improving valuation conditions
7-day average-0.68Smoothed market valuation signal
Latest observation03 June 2026The latest weighted reading suggests that the market is trading above DCF-based intrinsic value in aggregate.
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